[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 20N31W TO
10N32W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. A LARGE PLUME OF AFRICAN DUST IS HOWEVER SUPPRESSING
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N47W TO 11N49W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
22N86W TO 15N87W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD LOW
LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN
83W-90W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT
12N16W TO 13N23W TO 10N33W TO 11N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
11N44W TO 12N50W TO THE COAST OF GUYANA AT 8N59W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 15W-18W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 30W-39W. SCATTERED RAIN
AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 50W-59W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE W
ATLANTIC. WINDS ARE MOSTLY A SLIGHT BREEZE AT 10 KT. AN EMBEDDED
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND N FLORIDA FROM
31N84W TO 27N87W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
MOSTLY INLAND OVER N FLORIDA FROM 29N-32N BETWEEN 82W-87W.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS REMAIN ELSEWHERE E OF 90W AND N OF
28N. FURTHER S...A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST E OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO BE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE TROPICAL
WAVE. ALSO EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA
NEAR 8N75W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA
BETWEEN 76W-84W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE
TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE JUST N OF N
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E
NICARAGUA AND E HONDURAS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 83W-85W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N62W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING
CONVECTION. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONVECTION OVER PANAMA AND
THE SW CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL 1012 MB LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 31N63W A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW ALONG 29N63W 28N68W
30N72W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE
FRONT. FURTHER E...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 25N-32N E OF 45W WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER.
EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...THE ATLANTIC HAS
THICK SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED FROM 15N-28N BETWEEN E OF
45W...AND AN OLDER OUTBREAK OF DUST EXTENDS ALL THE WAY TO 88W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN AND W
ATLANTIC TO 45W. EXPECT THE FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH RAIN AND SHOWERS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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