[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260524
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUL 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1012 MB LOW IS SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 12N26W MOVING
W 15-20 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE LOW.

MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N42W TO 12N45W.WAVE HAS
APPEARED TO SLOWED DOWN OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS AS THE WAVE
BROADENS AND IS NOW MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 21N82W TO
12N83W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 19N78W TO 20N81W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 17N20W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW CONTINUING
ALONG 10N30W TO 11N40W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N48W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 30W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TUXPAN MEXICO TO OVER THE
N GULF COAST NEAR MISSISSIPPI. AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA TO THE N GULF COAST NEAR
APALACHICOLA BAY FLORIDA SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS
FROM S GEORGIA ALONG 30N83W INTO THE GULF WATERS TO 27N84W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N BETWEEN
83W-87W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA
JUST S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A WEAK 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N87W.
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NW GULF N OF 23N W
OF 93W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE EARLY THU AS THE ATLC
SURFACE RIDGE REBUILDS ACROSS THE GULF FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO
NE TEXAS. THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W
THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM
HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W ACROSS W CUBA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE BETWEEN
77W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE
E CARIBBEAN E OF 80W WITH DRY STABLE AIR E OF 70W LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
THROUGH MON. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN
LATE TONIGHT/THU THEN OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FRI MORNING.
MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN
REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE FAR W ATLC ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF
SOUTH CAROLINA COVERING THE AREA W OF 70W. AN UPPER TROUGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 26/0300 UTC
ACROSS BERMUDA ALONG 30N70W TO 31N73W WHERE IT PULLS UP
STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES OUT OF THE REGION NEAR 32N75W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE COLD
FRONT E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N OF 27N BETWEEN
52W-70W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NE ATLC NEAR THE AZORES WITH A
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N28W
ALONG 29N32W TO 30N36W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED
BY SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC NEAR
28N46W ALONG 25N63W THEN W ACROSS FLORIDA JUST S OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE
SE THROUGH FRI EVENTUALLY DISSIPATING ON FRI NIGHT. THE
STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE N LATE SAT REACHING
ALONG 28N ON MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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