[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 251145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1135 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 13N21W MOVING W
10-15 KT. LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN
21W-24W.

MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N39W TO 13N43W MOVING W
NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N74W
TO 11N75W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 20N81W
TO 12N82W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 17N16W THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW CONTINUING ALONG 12N25W
13N33W TO 11N41W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N50W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN
25W-32W AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN
44W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED NEAR 25N92W. A SURFACE
RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W
CONTINUING TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM SW GEORGIA
THROUGH TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 28N85W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-92N BETWEEN 83W-86W. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO
MEXICO N OF MEXICO CITY. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO FROM 22N97W TO 18N95W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N W OF 94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS
MORNING. NE GULF SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS
MORNING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN WILL SHIFT N
ACROSS FLORIDA SAT AND SUN. N PORTION OF W CARIBBEAN TROPICAL
WAVE MOVE W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM
AN UPPER LOW OVER NE NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W TO E CUBA NEAR
20N76W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 OS LINE FROM 18N79W TO 17N84W. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA ALONG 10N
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
10N-14N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA. AN
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN
E OF 72W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF
LINE FROM 14N66W TO 16N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 11N BETWEEN 61W-64W INCLUDING THE ISLAND OF TRINIDAD.
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE FRESH
TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN.
TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO GULF OF HONDURAS
TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO W
CARIBBEAN THU. THE MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING THE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A PAIR
OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SAME LOW THROUGH 32N54W TO 28N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N64W
TO 28N69W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N BETWEEN
60W-67W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 33N41W ALONG
26N51W THEN W ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH 30N TODAY AND WILL SKIRT
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THROUGH THU. A SURFACE RIDGE
WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN WILL DRIFT N SAT AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW




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