[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 250545
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 25 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 695 NM
E-NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS
MINIMAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS LOW. THE LOW IS MOVING NE NEAR
17 KT AND IS LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE
IT REACHES COOLER WATERS LATER TODAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1010 MB LOW IS OFF THE W COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 11N20W MOVING W
10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE
FROM 13N20W TO 12N23W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES EXTENDING FROM 21N38W TO 13N42W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
THIS MID ATLC WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO
11N74W MOVING W 20-25 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 19N79W
TO 12N82W MOVING WNW 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DRIER AIR
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY MASKING THE
SATELLITE SIGNATURE. NO ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR DAKAR SENEGAL THROUGH THE 1010 MB LOW CONTINUING ALONG
12N28W 12N37W TO 9N44W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N48W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 22W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GULF OF MEXICO WEATHER HAS BECOME MORE STABLE OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS DUE TO AN UPPER RIDGE THAT NOW COVERS THE GULF ANCHORED
NEAR 26N91W. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF EXTENDING FROM
THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 26N88W
CONTINUING TO THE S TEXAS COAST. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO
28N85W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
N OF 27N E OF 87W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES ACROSS TEXAS INTO NE
MEXICO TO NEAR MEXICO CITY. THIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N
ACROSS S MEXICO INTO THE SW GULF GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 23N BETWEEN 92W-97W.
THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. SURFACE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE SHIFTS S EXTENDING FROM S FLORIDA TO NE TEXAS THEN WILL
SHIFT N ACROSS FLORIDA SAT AND SUN. N PORTION OF W CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE MOVE W THROUGH BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS TO OVER THE FAR
NW CARIBBEAN W OF 85W WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE TROPICAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. THIS IS LEAVING
AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE SW CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER
LOW NEAR 15N83W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA
BETWEEN 77W-80W AND WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
BETWEEN 17N-19N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS
PANAMA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 12N W OF 73W TO INLAND OVER COLOMBIA TO NICARAGUA. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-71W TO OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC. SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE ATLC BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE IN W CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE
INTO GULF OF HONDURAS LATE WED AND BE OVER THE YUCATAN THU. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO W CARIBBEAN
THU. THE MID ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN
SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC
SUPPORTING THE LOW DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES AND A PAIR
OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE LEADING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
SAME LOW ALONG 32N54W TO 28N59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
TROUGH AXIS. THE TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N65W
TO 29N72W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N W OF 60W
TO THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE E ATLC AND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E/CENTRAL ATLC AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
33N41W ALONG 26N51W THEN W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. COLD FRONT WILL CROSS JUST N OF 31N WED AND THU.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI THEN DRIFT N SAT AND SUN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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