[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1010 MB NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 700
MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA NEAR 37N54W IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AS IT GRADUALLY LOSES FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS. THIS
DISTURBANCE IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 15-20 KNOTS AND IS
LIKELY PRODUCING WINDS AT OR NEAR GALE FORCE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE BEFORE IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS ON WEDNESDAY. PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION THAT WAS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER HAS DISSIPATED.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...

A 1011 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 180 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N19W MOVING W AT 10 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 19W-25W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N38W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N70W TO 11N70W IN THE E CARIBBEAN
MOVING W AT 15 KT. CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL
CLOUD FIELD IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N78W TO 12N79W IN THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE ALSO EXHIBITS BROAD
CYCLONIC TURNING. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IN THE
VICINITY OF JAMAICA FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 77W-80W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 14N17W
TO A 1011 MB LOW AT 11N19W TO 12N30W TO 11N40W TO 9N45W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N45W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT
5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN
19W-25W. RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS W OF 25W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
27N89W. ONLY 5 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED NEAR THE HIGH. A
1015 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 31N85W. A SMALL
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 28N86W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 85W-87W. FURTHER
S... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM
26N-27N. FURTHER W...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 19N-25N BETWEEN
90W-96W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS NEAR
27N95W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
TO BE OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1006 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER COSTA RICA AND THE SW
CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 80W-86W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N71W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE HIGH FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 65W-70W MOVING SE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FROM 32N55W TO 28N60W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 55W-57W.
ANOTHER 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 31N42W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING
GROUND DUST IMAGERY...A LARGE PORTION OF ATLANTIC HAS SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST LOCATED N OF 17N BETWEEN 15W-35W...AND N OF 10N
BETWEEN 35W-80W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA






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