[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241750
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A 1012 MB LOW IS ANALYZED ABOUT 90 NM OFF THE COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N17W. A WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THIS
FEATURE AS MODEL AND SATELLITE DATA BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVER
THE AREA FROM 6N-16N BETWEEN THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA AND 28W.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 21N36W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 11N41W
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN
A DENSE REGION OF SAHARAN DUST LIMITING THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
AROUND THE WAVE TO NEAR ZERO.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 17N67W TO 11N70W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16N71W TO 12N62W.
THE ACTIVITY ALONG THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND SPREAD
AS THE WAVE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER LOW OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND MONSOON TROUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS IS ANALYZED IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN FROM 19N75W
TO 12N77W. NO WAVE SIGNATURES/FEATURES ARE FOUND NEAR THE WAVE
AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA THROUGH THE 1012 MB
LOW DESCRIBED ABOVE CONTINUING WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 13N34W TO 8N45W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N50W TO
NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. CLUSTERS OF
WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF
SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING 1019 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N84W....
EMBEDDED IN A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NRN FLORIDA
PENINSULA NEAR 30N84W TO 26N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N E OF 87W. THE ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW/INVERTED TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WRN GULF PROVIDING
ENOUGH LIFTING AND INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A FEW CLUSTERS OF WEAK
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF 22N W OF 91W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT WNW DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16N71W TO
12N62W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
CENTERED NEAR 13N79W. THIS FEATURE IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF 11N W OF 77W...ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE PACIFIC WATERS
S OF PANAMA. THE RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE TROPICAL WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN AND SW
CARIBBEAN AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LOW AND MONSOON TROUGH
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
EMBEDDED IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW. UPPER
AIR SOUNDINGS AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
SAHARAN DUST ALOFT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 27N W OF 70W. TO THE EAST OF THIS AREA OF SHOWERS...A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS SSW INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N56W TO
26N63W GENERATING SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 28N BETWEEN
52W-70W. THESE TWO AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE FORECAST TO TRACK
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA
SUPPORTING A WEAK 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 27N67W...A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR
31N36W...AND A 1022 MB HIGH SE OF THE AZORES NEAR 36N23W. THE
FAIR WEATHER IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE
ENTIRE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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