[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240004
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N32W TO 13N35W MOVING W AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS WITHIN A DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N58W TO 10N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS E
OF 67W AND S OF 17N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N73W TO 11N73W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS CONFINED
TO INLAND VENEZUELA AND N COLOMBIA FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 67W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 10N14W TO
13N30W TO 9N42W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N42W 11N60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA
FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 10W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO CENTRAL GEORGIA
NEAR 33N87W. AS OF 2100 UTC...AN EMBEDDED 1018 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 29N84W. RADAR IMAGERY
SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION GOING AROUND THE LOW
CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MOST OF INLAND
FLORIDA. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 17N-22N BETWEEN 88W-93W. FURTHER W...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM 23N-28N
BETWEEN 90W-94W. THIS CONVECTION IS MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE NEAR 23N94W. EXPECT THE LOW OVER THE NE GULF TO
GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT INCREASED CONVECTION OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...A 1005 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N75W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AROUND THE LOW. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
NOTED BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER E NICARAGUA...E
HONDURAS...AND THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 12N-18N BETWEEN
82W-87W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N76W WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N69W.
ANOTHER 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 30N41W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE N
BAHAMAS AND THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 75W-80W.
EXAMINING GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...A LARGE PORTION
OF ATLANTIC HAS SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN
60W-80W...AND N OF 15N W OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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