[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 231745
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 23 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1735 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED A TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE
WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1200 UTC SURFACE MAP WITH AXIS FROM 18N55W
TO 12N56W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N BETWEEN
57W-66W INCLUDING THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS S OF SAINT LUCIA.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC WITH AXIS
ANALYZED FROM 21N31W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS NEAR 13N35W
MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ANY DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM 18N72W TO 12N71W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE
SIGNATURE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCTIVE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY AS THE WAVE MOVES WITHIN A REGION OF SAHARAN DUST
...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR. THEREFORE...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU IN
WEST AFRICA NEAR 12N16W TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 14N22W
12N31W 9N42W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 11N530W TO INLAND
OVER VENEZUELA NEAR 9N61W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION
ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ
W OF 20W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
ARE MOVING OUT WEST AFRICA COAST FROM 5N-13N E OF 20W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NOTED OVER THE NE GULF...
BEST DEPICTED AT 700 MB LEVEL. THIS FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE
TROUGH ANALYZED FROM THE NRN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 30N83W TO
28N86W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N
OF 26N E OF 86W. TO THE WEST OF THIS AREA OF CONVECTION...AN
INVERTED UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN GULF
PROVIDING ENOUGH LIFTING TO PRODUCE SIMILAR CONVECTION N OF 23N
W OF 89W. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST THE OVERALL ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...WHILE THE ACTIVITY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE INCREASES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE ATTENTION HAS TURNED TO THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN AND LESSER
ANTILLES ISLANDS S OF SAINT LUCIA...AS A RECENTLY ADDED TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES OVER THESE GROUP OF ISLANDS TODAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N E OF 66. THIS
AREA OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK W ALONG THE WAVE AXIS
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SIMILAR RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS OVER THE
FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA COUNTRIES S OF 19N W OF
81W...ASSOCIATED TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE EMBEDDED IN
THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITHOUT ANY IMPACTS. THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PROVIDED BY
STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND SAHARAN DUST ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA. THE
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR
WRN ATLC N OF 25N W OF 75W ASSOCIATED TO A BROAD MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF. THIS CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS WILL MOVE NNE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AROUND THE WRN
PERIPHERY OF A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED AS A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 28N69W. OTHERWISE...BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA
SUPPORTING A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 32N33W AND A 1025 MB HIGH S OF
THE AZORES NEAR 36N24W. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW
SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN REACHING TO THE
BAHAMAS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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