[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W TO THE SOUTH OF
20N. THE WAVE SHOWS UP CLEARLY IN THE LATEST TPW DATA...AND
IN LONG-TERM SATELLITE LOOPS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
14N TO 20N BETWEEN 26W AND 30W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N67W NEAR PUERTO
RICO...TO 16N69W TO 12N69W NEAR CURACAO. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 67W AND 71W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
TO 15N24W IN THE SOUTHERN CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N30W 10N40W
AND 10N45W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N45W 10N56W AND 9N61W AT
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF VENEZUELA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N28W 10N38W 9N43W...AND
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH RUNS FROM 27N87W...THROUGH
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO ALONG THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND IN
SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA SPILLING INTO A BIT OF MEXICO THAT
IS ADJACENT TO SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...ISOLATED MODERATE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 26N TO 29N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N80W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...TO 26N83W IN THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...TO 23N83W NEAR WESTERN CUBA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 75W AND
78W COVERING THE BAHAMAS AND IN FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF
OF MEXICO FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 83W AND 84W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ACROSS CUBA AND THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N84W.

AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
MISSISSIPPI INTO LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE COASTAL
PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WESTWARD TO
LOUISIANA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 18N81W IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE CENTER IS BECOMING
COMPARATIVELY MORE AND MORE DIFFICULT TO DISCERN BECAUSE
IT IS BEING STRETCHED IN AN EAST-TO-WEST DIRECTION.

LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...STAYING TO THE
SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...REACHING
COLOMBIA AND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 82W AND 88W.
THIS PRECIPITATION MAY BE RELATED TO BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 72W...FROM
HISPANIOLA SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA/NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W...ACROSS 7N78W AT THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...THROUGH 9N83W ALONG THE PANAMA/
COSTA RICA BORDER...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS THE AREA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 12 FEET
IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 83W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N38W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 24N51W CYCLONIC CENTER...TO 15N59W.
THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N62W. BROAD CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W. NO SIGNIFICANT
DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FEATURE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N48W...TO 29N57W...TO A 1025 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N68W...CONTINUING TO 30N76W.

PLEASE READ THE ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 75W FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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