[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 221757
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THE PASSAGE OF
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS EARLIER THIS
MORNING. THE WAVE WAS ADDED TO THE 1500 UTC SURFACE MAP WITH
AXIS FROM 29N79W TO 23N81W. WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE NOTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NW
BAHAMAS...FLORIDA PENINSULA AND ERN GULF WATERS FROM 22N-27N
BETWEEN 75W-83W

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WEST OF CAPE VERDE ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM
21N24W TO A 1014 MB LOW NEAR 13N30W MOVING W AT ABOUT 10 KT. THE
LOW CENTER IS JUST A FEW MILES N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE
REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...ANY
DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 19N65W TO 12N67W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THIS WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN DRY AIR AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE S-WRN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED IN THE WRN ATLC. THUS...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS WAS MOVING ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...SRN
MEXICO AND GUATEMALA EARLIER THIS MORNING IS NOW IN THE ERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC. SEE PACIFIC HIGH SEAS DISCUSSION FOR MORE
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA IN WEST
AFRICA NEAR 19N16W TO ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 13N25W
10N40W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 9N50W TO INLAND OVER
GUYANA IN SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM O
EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ W OF 23W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD OMEGA-LIKE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CONUS AND MOST OF
THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS THE GULF...A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE SHOWN OVER THE NW AND CENTRAL WRN GULF N OF
23N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN GULF STATES FROM ERN TO NRN GEORGIA.
SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ENTERING THE FAR ERN GULF AND STRAITS OF
FLORIDA ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. SURFACE SE FLOW UP TO 15 KT IS OBSERVED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THE ACTIVITY OVER THE
NW GULF WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AS WELL AS THE
ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR ERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS UNDER FAIR WEATHER
CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE
TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SW BASIN. THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS INFLUENCED BY NW AND SE CONFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FAR SW IS
ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO
THE SRN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND WRN COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL
WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN WITHOUT ANY IMPACTS. THE
ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MID WEEK. THE ERN CARIBBEAN
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LEAVING AN AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
22N-27N W OF 75W. OTHERWISE...AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 22N61W AND SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING
ACROSS THE WRN ATLC ANCHORED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY 1025 MB HIGH
NEAR 29N65W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A
LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR THE AZORES
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WSW TO THE WRN ATLC. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC
BASIN REACHING TO THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT THEN SHIFT SOUTHWARD TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net