[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N22W ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 13N25W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE LOW CENTER
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N62W TO 10N62W
MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W TO 19N65W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE S GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 18N90W TO EL SALVADOR MOVING W NEAR 25 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN AN UPPER TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA TO OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 17N15W THROUGH THE 1012 MB LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 13N25W CONTINUING ALONG 11N29W
11N37W TO 10N40W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 7N47W TO INLAND
OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
12N24W TO 7N35W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 50W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE NW GULF ANCHORED INLAND OVER S
TEXAS. AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA
NEAR 22N85W COVERING THE E GULF AND EXTENDING A TROUGH AXIS WSW
TO S MEXICO AND COVERING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N E OF 85W TO
OVER S FLORIDA...CUBA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE S GULF S
OF A LINE FROM 25N86W TO TAMPICO MEXICO INCLUDING THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TO 24N95W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH MON.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH WITH TWO EMBEDDED UPPER LOWS DOMINATES THE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N70W THROUGH AN UPPER LOW NEAR 15N74W TO A SECOND UPPER
LOW CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL/W CUBA NEAR 22N85W. THIS
IS GIVING THE W CARIBBEAN W TO NW FLOW ALOFT AND THE E CARIBBEAN
SE FLOW ALOFT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 84W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE
SW CARIBBEAN ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-12N W OF 82W
TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC COVERS
THE GREATER ANTILLES PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 68W-85W
INCLUDING CUBA AND HISPANIOLA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL
MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN THROUGH WED. E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE W
ENTERING THE W CARIBBEAN LATER IN THE WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL/W CUBA ALONG ACROSS S FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO
32N76W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 28N W OF
77W INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. AN UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED NEAR
23N65W AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE GREATER
ANTILLES TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SW
OF A LINE FROM THE N COAST OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 66W ALONG 21N70W
TO 25N76W INCLUDING HISPANIOLA...THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE ATLC
BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027
MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N45W TO A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 29N63W TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW SAHARAN
DUST COVERING MOST OF THE ATLC BASIN REACHING THE FLORIDA E
COAST. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WILL DRIFT N THROUGH MON THEN BECOME
STATIONARY ONCE AGAIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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