[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 220006
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N21W TO 11N25W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A
1011 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AT 14N24W. THE SYSTEM IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS INDICATED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. THE SYSTEM ALSO COINCIDES WITH A BROAD 700 MB
TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
7N-14N BETWEEN 22W-28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
E OF THE WAVE AXIS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 15W-19W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N61W TO 10N61W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
CYCLONIC TURNING IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD FIELD IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 55W-61W. AN INCREASE OF
TROPICAL RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE LEEWARD AND
WINDWARD ISLANDS E OF 67W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO 17N88W TO 14N85W MOVING W
AT 15 KT. THE WAVE EXHIBITS BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE WAVE TOGETHER WITH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AIRMASS BUILDUPS MOVING W WITH THE SEA BREEZE ARE PRODUCING
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA BELIZE AND N GUATEMALA N OF 16N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL NEAR 15N16W TO E OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 15N23W. THE MONSOON TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS W
OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS FROM 13N26W TO 10N40W. THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE CONTINUES FROM 10N40W TO 5N50W TO
FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR FRENCH GUIANA FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 53W-56W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC TO N FLORIDA NEAR
JACKSONVILLE. AIRMASS SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER MOST
OF FLORIDA...AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO E OF 84W. FURTHER W...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W TO THE NW
GULF NEAR 28N92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS W
LOUISIANA AND THE NW GULF FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 91W-94W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
24N-30N BETWEEN 87W-92W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED
FROM UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER ARKANSAS AT 34N94W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
ADDITIONAL TROPICAL CONVECTION TO ADVECT OVER THE E GULF OF
MEXICO E OF 90W FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER W TEXAS AND LOUISIANA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE
IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN N OF
PANAMA AT 10N80W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
9N-13N BETWEEN 77W-86W. 15-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE NOTED BETWEEN
THE TROPICAL WAVES. STRONGEST SURFACE WINDS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...AND CUBA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N82W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N73W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE OVER HISPANIOLA AND E CUBA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION.
EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVES TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 31N47W
MOVING W. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W TO NEAR JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 74W-80W. ANOTHER 1026 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 35N27W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXAMINING GOES-R
PROVING GROUND DUST IMAGERY...A LARGE PORTION OF ATLANTIC HAS
SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST LOCATED N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W...AND N
OF 15N W OF 20W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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