[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201131
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 20 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N44W 13N46W 9N47W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N37W 15N46W 10N50W 8N57W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N70W 16N68W 12N66W...
FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD ISLA LA ORCHILA OF
VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 TO 60 NM RADIUS OF 15N69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 17N
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO BE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND
THEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS...AS IT MOVED ACROSS MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 94W AND COASTAL MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 17N
TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W...10N27W AND 10N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N35W
TO 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 19W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 26W...ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF
10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TROPICAL WAVE FROM SIX HOURS AGO
HAS BEEN REPOSITIONED TO BE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...AND
THEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS...AS IT MOVED ACROSS MEXICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
LINGERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 94W AND COASTAL MEXICO. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 17N
TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W. MORE SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 6N TO 17N BETWEEN 100W AND 104W. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N82W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...THAT IS NEAR ALONG THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER...
TO 29N84W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 87W AND
94W. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W. AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 29N105W. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS MEXICO AND TEXAS
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N NORTHWARD IN MEXICO. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
26N104W...AND WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 25N107W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH 28N80W OFF THE FLORIDA ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST...TO
27N88W...TO THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST FROM 27N TO 28N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N69W 16N67W
13N65W...FROM THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TOWARD LA ISLA
BLANQUILLA OF VENEZUELA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 66W AND 69W.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
10N77W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 23N
BETWEEN 70W AND 85W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN
COLOMBIA...TO 8N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN
COSTA RICA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP
OF THE AREA OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG COVERS THE COASTAL PLAINS AND COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS FROM
PANAMA ALONG 80W TO SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N63W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N70W...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR
10N77W JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 17N TO 23N
BETWEEN 70W AND 85W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND INTO THE NORTHERN AREAS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS
ALONG 64W FROM 20N SOUTHWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N65W. A SURFACE
RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N46W TO 30N66W...BEYOND FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W...INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT




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