[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 180556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 18 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N23W 16N23W 12N22W.
DISORGANIZED WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM
10N TO 13N BETWEEN 20W AND 26W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 10N49W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 55W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
CROSSING CUBA TO 19N81W...AND TO 16N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 81W.
PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. IT IS NOT
EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY
THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
12N22W 11N29W 8N40W AND 8N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N44W
TO 9N50W...AND TO 6N58W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL GUYANA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W
AND 41W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 39W AND 43W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 32N81W IN
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING
AROUND THE CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
FLORIDA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 78W AND 88W. 7W AND 85W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE
NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO
THE EAST OF 84W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT
IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN
80W AND 93W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO
THE EAST OF 93W

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N102W IN WEST TEXAS AND
THE TEXAS RIO GRANDE VALLEY...TO 27N98W AND 24N97W IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 22N
TO THE EAST OF 102W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
COVERS EL SALVADOR...SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...AND EXTREME
SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 95W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
CROSSING CUBA TO 19N81W...AND TO 16N81W IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS IN THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 16N TO THE
WEST OF 81W. PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT
IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO ONLY THE TROPICAL WAVE. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS EL SALVADOR...
SOUTHWESTERN HONDURAS...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 78W. THIS
AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE 21N62W TO 22N78W
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. EARLIER PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL HAITI HAS
DISSIPATED ALREADY.

A SEPARATE BUT COMPARATIVELY WEAKER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
15N70W 11N76W...TO THE GULF OF URABA IN COASTAL COLOMBIA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 7N76W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA AND ITS EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
COASTAL WATERS FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. BROAD SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE IS PART OF THE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE THAT COVERS THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET
FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 69W AND 84W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N56W TO A 29N58W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N60W...TO A 21N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 22N77W BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW ALSO REACHES AS FAR AS 16N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 21N39W
TO 16N44W TO 10N48W. NO CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT
WITH THIS TROUGH.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 27N50W...TO A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N66W...CONTINUING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA TO 25N82W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 50W...AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF 70W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net