[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N53W TO 15N55W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS DIFFICULT TO TRACK AS SAHARAN DUST
CONTINUES TO SHROUD THE SIGNATURE OF THE WAVE AT THE SURFACE.
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED TO FLATTEN OUT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS DUE TO SYNOPTIC SCALE SURFACE RIDGING
BETWEEN 50W-65W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N72W TO 21N72W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 70W-75W
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS
NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W TO
12N20W TO 11N37W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM 11N37W TO 10N41W TO 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-13N BETWEEN 14W-22W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
IN THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR 30N78W SOUTHWEST TO OVER A
BROADER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N85W THAT INFLUENCES
MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA PENINSULA W OF 93W. MOST
OF THE SIGNIFICANT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EAST OF 86W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS OCCURRING THIS EVENING E OF 85W AND ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
ENHANCING THIS CONVECTION ANALYZED FROM NEAR JACKSONVILLE TO
26N84W. ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 90W FROM
THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N TO 28N WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BETWEEN
88W-94W. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FAR WESTERN
GULF...A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 90W NEAR 27N94W TO A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED
OVER COASTAL EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 20N97W. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 96W-98W ON
LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGHING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GULF AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
24N85W IS PROVIDING THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 75W WITH
SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY
LOCATED IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...WESTERN CUBA N
OF 22N BETWEEN 79W-85W...AND OVER FAR EASTERN CUBA N OF 20N
BETWEEN 74W-76W. OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN...AN
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 13N76W AND
STRETCHES INFLUENCE FROM 60W TO AS FAR WEST AS 93W OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE EAST PACIFIC REGION. LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH MAXIMIZED UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS GENERATING A LARGE AREA OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 81W-86W. THIS
AREA OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO MONDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS NICARAGUA AND
HONDURAS. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL
THIS EVENING. THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 73W AND APPROACHING WAVE
ALONG 55W CARRY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND CONVECTION DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST THAT EXTENDS TO ALMOST
72W THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALSO
DIPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NE CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL STABLE AND FAIR WEATHER.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W
OF 72W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N78W TO ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N85W.
THIS TROUGHING IS RESULTING IN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W OF 73W THIS
EVENING AND MORE AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. FARTHER EAST...A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH CENTERED
SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N62W. A SMALL COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS
IS CENTERED NEAR 29N56W AND REMAINS ENHANCED WITHIN A WEAKNESS
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AND MAXIMUM MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING FROM A 1027 MB
HIGH CENTERED WEST OF THE IBERIAN PENINSULA NEAR 42N17W TO A
1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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