[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151735
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N53W TO 7N52W
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM N OF HISPANIOLA AT 21N70W TO N
VENEZUELA AT 11N69W MOVING W AT 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS IN AN BROAD
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W TO
10N29W TO 7N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N34W TO 6N40W TO FRENCH
GUIANA AT 5N53W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 14W-21W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 29W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE
FLORIDA AT 30N82W TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N82W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE SE GULF...AND THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 26N E OF 83W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF FROM 27N89W TO 19N90W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER LOUISIANA AND THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM
24N-32N BETWEEN 88W-92W. ELSEWHERE SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 25N W OF 95W. THE GULF HAS
PREDOMINATELY 5-10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR
25N84W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER CENTRAL
TEXAS AT 31N99W. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE ENHANCING RAIN AND SHOWERS.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE.
FURTHER W...AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM E HONDURAS TO PANAMA FROM 9N-16N BETWEEN 80W-85W
MOVING W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA AND THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 81W-87W. ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED N OF COLOMBIA NEAR 13N77W. ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE W
ATLANTIC AND THE BAHAMAS N OF 20N W OF 70W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N78W. A
1025 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA AT 34N64W. ANOTHER 1028 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 42N17W. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THIS HIGH TO 34N40W TO THE BERMUDA HIGH.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 33N38W...31N59W...AND
31N78W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE W
ATLANTIC FROM 28N-33N BETWEEN 55W-62W DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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