[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142334
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N43W TO 16N49W MOVING W AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP MOISTURE
SURGE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN
45W-55W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N61W TO 19N63W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 60W-65W
ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ON THE SOUTHERN EXTEND OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM
10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 14N17W TO
10N21W TO 12N32W TO 11N42W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N47W TO 09N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 11W-18W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 23W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION NEAR
29N74W SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W TO
OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. CONSIDERABLE
BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
AND WESTERN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...WITH LOW TO MIDDLE
LEVEL ENERGY AND SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM MOBILE BAY
NEAR 31N88W TO 26N89W IN THE CENTRAL GULF. WITH BROAD TROUGHING
IN PLACE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN PENINSULA OF FLORIDA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS N OF 25N E OF 84W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE CENTRAL GULF SURFACE
TROUGH ARE OCCURRING N OF 23N BETWEEN 86W-92W...INCLUDING INLAND
PORTIONS OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE FAR WESTERN GULF...A WEAKENING SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS FROM WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR 27N94W TO A
1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER COASTAL EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR
22N98W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING W OF 95W
ON LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE TROUGHING ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GULF AND HIGH OVER MEXICO.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION
NEAR 29N74W SOUTHWESTWARD TO OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND
NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W. SOUTHWESTERLY MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
IS PRODUCING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS
EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS
FROM CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 23N79W TO 19N84W PROVIDING FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 75W-85W...
INCLUDING A LARGE PORTION OF CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE
CARIBBEAN BASIN S OF 17N BETWEEN 57W-85W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N68W.
THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL STABLE CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS S OF 14N
BETWEEN 68W-82W. ONE EXCEPTION TO CONVECTIVE-FREE SKIES IS A
TROPICAL WAVE ANALYZED ALONG 62W WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 61W-63W AND IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC W
OF 67W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 29N74W TO ANOTHER
UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N82W.
THIS TROUGHING RESULTS IN A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH AXIS AT THE
SURFACE ANALYZED FROM 32N65W TO 25N75W. PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD FROM THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC REGION PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER A LARGE AREA FROM
23N-29N BETWEEN 69W-79W...AND FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 75W-83W.
FARTHER EAST...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 35N48W. MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY N OF 15N E OF 60W AND ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SUSPENDED
SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC S OF
30N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net