[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140535
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 14 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS ANALYZED FROM
15N38W TO 7N40W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN A SURGE OF MODERATE DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANY CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N57W TO 8N53W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
THE LOW IS NO LONGER DISCERNIBLE AND HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE
ANALYSIS. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 59W FROM
17N-20N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM OF 56W FROM 10N-13N.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W TO 10N19W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 10N22W
11N27W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 9N38W THEN RESUMES W OF
THE WAVE NEAR 7N42W TO E OF THE NEXT WAVE NEAR 8N51W THEN
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 8N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 6N58W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-14N E OF 40W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND
FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND NE MEXICO
COVERING THE FAR W CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO S OF
25N W OF 96W. AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE NE GULF TO 27N91W.
THE SURFACE LOW PREVIOUSLY IN THE NE GULF IS NO LONGER A CLOSED
LOW LEAVING A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 29N86W TO 24N89W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150
NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE S GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER
LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N91W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE
REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF BETWEEN 80W-88W. SURFACE TROUGH WILL
MOVE NW TOWARD SE LOUISIANA LATER THIS MORNING AND LINGER OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE SUN AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
BY MON. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF LATE MON AND
TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE S GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
CUBA GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITHIN 150 NM ALONG THE S
COAST FROM HAITI TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N
E OF 82W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA AND COLOMBIA. MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 73W. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT REACHING THE W CARIBBEAN BY MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A PAIR OF UPPER LOWS DOMINATE THE W ATLC ONE CENTERED OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W AND A MUCH LARGER ONE CENTERED NEAR 27N70W
WITH THE SURFACE ANALYSIS HINTING AT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
ROUGHLY FROM 28N65W TO 22N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE W ATLC W OF 59W. A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC BASIN ANCHORED BY A
1033 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W ALONG
35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER AGAIN TONIGHT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER
THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 16N-32N E OF 42W AND FROM 10N-26N
BETWEEN 42W-57W. SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN N OF THE AREA
THROUGH SUN THEN MOVE S TO NEAR 31N MON AS A HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS NEAR 28N63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net