[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 132339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N37W TO 7N38W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
33W-38W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N56W TO 9N53W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED ON THE BASE OF
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 9N53W WHERE RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120
NM OF THE LOW CENTER.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GAMBIA AT 13N17W TO 11N19W. THE
ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM 11N19W TO 12N27W TO 6N43W TO 9N53W TO
GUYANA AT 6N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 18W-22W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 26W-32W...AND FROM
6N-8N BETWEEN 40W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N86W. RADAR
IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN AND SHOWERS N AND E OF THE LOW ALONG THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND INLAND 90 NM. SIMILAR RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH FLORIDA...THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W
CUBA...E OF 83W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S LOUISIANA AT
30N90W TO THE NW GULF AT 26N95W. RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
DETECTION SHOWS RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 24N W OF
89W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 23N90W. ANOTHER SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS AT 26N97W. BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
ENHANCING RAIN AND SHOWERS. EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO MOVE W TO
THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF WITH PRECIPITATION THEN DISSIPATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT A MORE RAIN AND SHOWERS OVER THE
W GULF W OF 94W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1006 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA AT 7N74W. NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN
72W-77W. FURTHER E...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER MOST OF VENEZUELA. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PUERTO RICO...
HISPANIOLA...CUBA...AND JAMAICA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT...A TROPICAL WAVE TO ENTER THE E
CARIBBEAN WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA...AND OVER PANAMA AND THE SE CARIBBEAN
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE S
BAHAMAS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 72W-80W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 27N77W. A 1031
MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 36N41W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS W FROM THE
HIGH TO 34N70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT
34N45W...27N69W...AND 27N77W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 56W-74W.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA




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