[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W...FROM
7N TO 16N. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN A LONG-TERM LOOP
OF SATELLITE IMAGERY. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN LOW
CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N
BETWEEN 34W AND 47W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N54W 14N53W...
TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 9N50W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 51W AND 55W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GAMBIA NEAR
13N17W TO 13N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N21W TO 11N28W
9N35W AND 7N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 11N15W 11N29W 8N36W 7N46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N89W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 16N IN THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO 28N BETWEEN 85W AND 94W.
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM THE
BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N83W. A SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG 31N84W IN NORTHERN FLORIDA...TO A 1015 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...TO 26N85W.
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG
BEND-TO-23N83W LINE...AND FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 85W AND
90W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ALONG THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA
BORDER AND ALONG THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS IN THE
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS FROM 28N TO 30N
BETWEEN 91W AND 93W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
IS IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF TEXAS AND
MEXICO FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA...AND BELIZE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA...TO THE NORTH OF 16N...REACHING 84W. THIS CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 24N89W GULF OF MEXICO CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER.

UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE BAHAMAS AND THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN ORDER TO COVER
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...TO 17N80W 16N70W 16N60W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
IN PARTS OF PUERTO RICO...IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF
HISPANIOLA...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE
JAMAICA CHANNEL AND CUBA.

UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
REST OF THE AREA...MOVING NORTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...FROM NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND FROM COLOMBIA
AND VENEZUELA IN SOUTH AMERICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE SOUTH THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST
NEAR 12N83W TO 10N77W OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 13/1200 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 1.09 INCHES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 82W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 34N45W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 28N50W 28N55W...TO A 26N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 26N75W...TO 22N76W IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS BEING PUSHED FROM
THE BAHAMAS AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N83W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 27N59W TO 20N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 64W...WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG TO THE SOUTH
OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND-TO-23N83W LINE...ISOLATED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 49W.

BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 27N59W-TO-20N60W
SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 12 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 64W...
AND 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 74W...
EVERYTHING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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