[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N32W TO
8N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS PRECEDING THE AREA DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 9N48W
MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. SURFACE LOW HAS BECOME DETACHED FROM THE
ITCZ. LOW AND WAVE REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS NO LONGER
DISCERNIBLE DUE TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW AND
SURFACE TROUGHS...THUS DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 15N17W TO 14N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N32W ALONG 6N43W CONTINUING S OF THE LOW/TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 7N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N56W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 120 NM OF A LINE FROM THE COAST OF W AFRICA NEAR 11N16W
ALONG 11N23W 7N33W TO 8N44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN STILL GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND IN THE GULF W OF A LINE FROM TERREBONNE
BAY LOUISIANA ALONG 27N92W TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. AN UPPER RIDGE
ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI DELTA OF LOUISIANA COVERING THE FAR NE GULF. A WEAK
MESOSCALE LOW HAS MOVED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND IS NOW 1014 MB
CENTERED AT 13/0900 UTC NEAR 29N85W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM E OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA THROUGH THE LOW TO
26N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS
DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N88W AND SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 26N87W INLAND
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 21N90W CONTINUING TO THE NW
CORNER OF GUATEMALA. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
120/150 NM OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE SE GULF S OF 26N TO
THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 80W-84W INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA...ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N W OF 95W...AND
WITHIN 60/75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE S OF TUXPAN AND W OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL MOVE NW
THROUGH SUN AS A SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE AREA SLIDES S TO THE FAR
NE GULF BY MON. THE MESOSCALE LOW AND TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE
LATER TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER LOW OVER THE SE GULF EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN WITH NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING MOST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES FROM THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS TO CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND WITHIN 90/120 NM
ALONG THE S COAST FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO W CUBA WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST OF HAITI BETWEEN
71W-74W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS THE SW
CARIBBEAN ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA
BORDER THEN IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 80W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA E OF 80W. MODERATE TO
FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 71W. THIS IS LEAVING
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING.
TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG
BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA COVERS THE FAR NW
ATLC N OF 28N W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N65W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 28N57W TO 20N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM 25N52W ALONG 26N60W
TO 30N66W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N
BETWEEN 70W-78W INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. A LARGE SURFACE
RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING W
ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF DENSE
SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 16N-32N E OF 33W
AND FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 32W-50W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
THROUGH SUN THEN SLIDE S TO NEAR 31N MON AS A HIGH CENTER WILL
DEVELOP NEAR 28N63W. THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST NE OF PUERTO RICO
WILL MOVE W AND REACH FROM 30N65W TO 23N69W TONIGHT FROM 30N70W
TO 23N72W SAT NIGHT FROM 30N71W TO 23N74W BY SUN NIGHT THEN
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE FAR NW ATLC MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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