[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130531
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 17N26W
ALONG 13N28W TO 9N29W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS AT THE
LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N46W TO A 1009 MB LOW NEAR
9N46W MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE SURFACE LOW REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE ITCZ. A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS CAUGHT UP WITH THE WAVE
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE W OF THE WAVE FROM
8N-12N BETWEEN 47W-50W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANALYZED FROM 29N82W
ACROSS W CUBA TO 21N83W IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MOVING NW 10-15 KT.
WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE HAS MOVED
TO ALONG THE E SIDE OF A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF. NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 13N20W. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE TROPICAL
WAVE NEAR 8N31W ALONG 7N38W TO JUST E OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE
NEAR 8N45W AND RESUMES W OF THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N48W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN
24W-28W AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 30W-33W AND 37W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NARROW UPPER TROUGH DIPS S ACROSS E TEXAS AND THE FAR NW
CARIBBEAN STILL GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM LAKE CHARLES
LOUISIANA TO 26N96W. AN UPPER LOW OVER SW GEORGIA COVERS THE NE
GULF. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LOW
CENTERED NEAR 24N89W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT
13/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 26N87W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR MERIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 25N85W TO 26N89W AND FROM 20N-23N
BETWEEN 90W-92W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE E GULF FROM 24N-29N E OF 86W TO THE
COAST OF FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND ALONG
THE COAST OF MEXICO FROM 22N-25N W OF 95W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL
REBUILD W TONIGHT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS
WESTWARD.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
TONIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC COVERS THE GREATER
ANTILLES FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO CUBA GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLANDS AND
WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE S COAST FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO W
CUBA WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE S COAST
OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 70W-73W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
COLOMBIA ACROSS S PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75
NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 76W IN PANAMA TO 13N IN NICARAGUA.
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE ACROSS THE BASIN GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 69W. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH
STRONG BREEZE OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL WAVE WILL
MOVE INTO E CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT AND INTO THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW IS IN THE W ATLC NEAR 25N65W COVERING THE AREA FROM
55N-80W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
22N-29N BETWEEN 54W-68W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
27N W OF 73W TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA. AN UPPER LOW IS JUST N OF THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 33N44W
COVERING THE AREA N OF 24N BETWEEN 37W-50W GENERATING CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
45W-54W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE ENTIRE
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING W ALONG 35N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN
FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE SURGE OF
DENSE SAHARAN DUST OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC IS FROM 16N-30N E OF
30W AND FROM 10N-26N BETWEEN 30W-48W. STRONG SURFACE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE AREA THROUGH SUN THEN WILL WEAKEN THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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