[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 12 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N23W...THROUGH THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 13N25W AND 8N26W. THE UPPER AIR SOUNDING
FROM DAKAR SENEGAL SHOWS EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM
700 MB AND LOWER MOVING THROUGH THERE AROUND 11/1200 UTC. BROAD
AND LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THREE COMPUTER MODELS MAKE
A FORECAST OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE
AT 700 MB AND AT 850 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N. A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 9N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 43W AND 48W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N53W 17N51W 10N49W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
24N53W 17N52W 10N50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W FROM 19N IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 26N NEAR FLORIDA. THE PRECIPITATION THAT
IS NEAR THE WAVE ALSO MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS FLORIDA AND ITS COASTAL WATERS
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 11N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N24W TO 8N27W 6N37W
AND 7N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 9N
TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W...FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W AND
50W...AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO THE WEST
OF 50W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 60W AND 63W
ACROSS TRINIDAD AND PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 12/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 1.06 OF AN INCH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 29N85W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A 24N88W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 20N92W JUST OFF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO A SECOND COMPARATIVELY WEAKER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N97W...JUST TO THE WEST OF
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE EAST OF 88W...TO THE SOUTH
OF 24N BETWEEN 86W AND 90W INCLUDING IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 94W AND 98W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS REACHED THE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO
COAST. A SURFACE TROUGH IS PARALLEL TO THE ENTIRE TEXAS GULF
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM
31N93W IN SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA TO 28N96W ALONG THE MIDDLE
TEXAS GULF COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 19N64W IN
THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO 14N62W. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...MOVING
NORTHWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM NICARAGUA IN CENTRAL
AMERICA AND SOUTH AMERICA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...THROUGH
8N80W NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA
RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH
OF 12N BETWEEN 79W AND COASTAL COSTA RICA.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 12/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 1.09 INCHES.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W...EXCEPT FOR 25 TO 30 KNOT
WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 25N50W...TO A 25N63W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO A 28N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND WITHIN
360 NM OF THE INDIVIDUAL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 21N TO 28N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W...FROM 22N TO 31N
BETWEEN 56W AND 63W...AND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO 31N BETWEEN 68W
AND 82W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO INCLUDING SOUTH
FLORIDA. SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO EASILY ALSO MAY BE RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW
OF THE TROUGH AND THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAVE BEEN
COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER...
TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/1200 UTC FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS
WAS 1.49 INCHES.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 30N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA TO 27N90W IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING
FROM 8 TO 12 FEET FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN 35W AND 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net