[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N37W TO 9N41W MOVING W AT 15 KT.
THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS MOSTLY VOID OF
CONVECTION N OF 11N. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 9N41W WHERE
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
39W-43W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAHAMAS AT 25N76W TO E JAMAICA
AT 18N76W MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAHAMAS AND E CUBA
FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MAURITANIA AT 19N16W TO 15N20W
TO 8N21W TO 6N29W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 9N40W
TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 18W-26W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 47W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 30N.
5-10 KT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ARE OVER THE
GULF. AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL INLAND OVER THE N GULF
STATES. SIMILAR THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT A TROPICAL WAVE TO APPROACH S FLORIDA
AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITHIN 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION. ALSO
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E AND SW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF CUBA...AND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER
HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...AND THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W ENHANCING
CONVECTION. SW FLOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. EXPECT
... CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN...AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 72W-80W MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N73W. A 1032
MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 39N28W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO
32N70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS
ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT
30N35W...25N59W...AND 30N73W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
NOTED SE OF THE FIRST TWO CIRCULATIONS. EXPECT...CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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