[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 10N TO 21N.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 25N BETWEEN 32W AND 40W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 45W FROM 10N TO 22N. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NEARBY LOW CLOUDS THAT COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
10N TO 23N BETWEEN 43W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM 18N IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL
TO 25N JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N73W. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF CUBA AND THE SOUTHERN
BAHAMAS BETWEEN 69W AND 80W. IT IS NOT EASY TO KNOW WHICH
FEATURE BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MORE
INVOLVED WITH THE PRECIPITATION. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE BAHAMAS FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W
AND 75W AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND
76W AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 27N TO 30N
BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
17N16W TO 12N25W AND 11N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N36W TO
6N45W AND 6N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W ACROSS TRINIDAD AND PARTS OF
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 24W AND FROM 7N TO 11N
BETWEEN 36W AND 42W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND
58W...ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR 31N84W IN THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO 26N87W...TO A GULF OF MEXICO 23N88W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A WEAKER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 19N97W IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE
EAST OF 85W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM CUBA TO 28N BETWEEN 74W
AND 80W...ISOLATED MODERATE IS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE
THAT GOES FROM 22N97W TO 19N92W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS INTO
NORTHERN MEXICO NEAR 27N99W TO 25N101W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVES LOUISIANA
AND TEXAS AND THEIR COASTAL WATERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN
91W AND 99W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE
EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N86W...TO 24N94W IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE PRESENT TIME.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA TO THE
EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF URABA...AND IN THE
COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF PANAMA IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 5N TO THE EAST OF 81W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 11/1200 UTC FOR TRINIDAD WAS 0.48 OF AN INCH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT
25 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 13 FEET
FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W AND 82W. EXPECT WIND SPEEDS
ELSEWHERE RANGING FROM 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N33W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO A 28N40W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 25N66W...
26N71W...TO A 31N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW IS WITHIN 240 TO 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG NEAR THE BAHAMAS
FROM 22N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W AND FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN
78W AND 80W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO
27N BETWEEN 64W AND 76W AND ALONG THE EASTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM
27N TO 30N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM 18N TO 30N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N54W...TO 34N63W...TO
31N75W...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THREE
AREAS OF 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.
ONE AREA IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 68W AND 75W. A SECOND
AREA IS FROM 15N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND 60W. A THIRD AREA
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT








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