[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110556
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS ALONG 35W FROM
12N-22N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN OF A SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH AN AREA OF DRIER AIR BEING
INTRODUCED ACROSS THE S PORTION OF THE WAVE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ANOTHER SURGE OF SAHARAN DUST
IS TRAILING THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 26N71W OVER HAITI TO NEAR 19N73W
MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE IS AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER LOW ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 68W-74W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N20W 11N29W TO 8N40W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N52W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N9N W OF
23W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ
BETWEEN 25W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF ANCHORED OVER THE DESERT SW
EXTENDING AN AXIS ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. A CUTOFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE SE GULF CENTERED NEAR
23N88W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NW TO OVER NE FLORIDA AND SW
TO OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 11/0300 UTC FROM 21N90W TO 17N93W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 20N E OF 93W
TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE
FAR E GULF N OF 25N E OF 85W TO INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA. A WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GIVING
THE NW GULF MOSTLY S TO SE RETURN FLOW AND COUPLED WITH THE
OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF A LINE FROM THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI
BORDER ALONG 27N92W TO S TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA LATE WED CONTINUING W
THROUGH LATE THU THEN WEAKENING OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FRI AND
SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE FAR NW GULF THU THEN
DRIFT N OF THE AREA FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
EXCEPT OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING ACROSS THE ATLC IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HAITI AND
CUBA BETWEEN 73W-85W. MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS
WITH STRONG WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS S OF 19N W OF 85W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N. THIS IS LEAVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. TROPICAL
WAVE N OF HAITI WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT
AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC FROM AN UPPER LOW
IN THE E ATLC NEAR 29N33W THROUGH A LOW NEAR 26N56W TO A THIRD
NEAR 30N73W CUTTING OFF THE LOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 29N W OF 76W TO INLAND OVER
FLORIDA AND A PORTION OF THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA INCLUDING THE
BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
JUST E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE N OF HAITI FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN
68W-72W AND FURTHER E FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 54W-62W. A LARGE
SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB
HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OF 32N
E OF BERMUDA THEN DROPPING S TO OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GIVING THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES ANOTHER SURGE OF DENSE SAHARAN DUST HAS
EMERGED OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC FROM 10N-30N E OF 30W. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N ON WED THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. TROPICAL WAVE N OF HAITI WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLC REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED NIGHT
AND THU. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL ATLC ON
FRI AND ENTER THE CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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