[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102356
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N33W TO 13N33W MOVING W AT 15
KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N71W TO HISPANIOLA AT 18N71W
MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IS
ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT REACHING 70W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 66W-71W.
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N15W TO 7N20W
TO 11N30W TO 8N39W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 8N39W TO FRENCH
GUIANA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST
OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 18W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 30W-45W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 88W-93W...MOSTLY DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE.
ELSEWHERE...AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER FLORIDA...CUBA...AND
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT MORE CONVECTION OVER THE E AND SW
GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AIRMASS THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF CUBA...AND
OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. A
1004 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 7N74W. 15-25 KT
TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS W OF 80W. EXPECT...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION
OVER CUBA...THE W CARIBBEAN...AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS FROM
22N-26N BETWEEN W OF 77W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE
AZORES AT 39N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N60W 29N74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS A
SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 30N33W...25N53W...AND 29N72W. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE NOTED SE OF EACH CIRCULATION. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA





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