[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101119
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUL 10 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 22N29N
ALONG 17N31W TO 13N30W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST
REMAINS SURROUNDING THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N68W OVER E DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
NEAR 18N69W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER LOW ENHANCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 66W-71W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W TO 13N26W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES S OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N40W 7N42W 8N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH
AMERICA NEAR 5N56W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM N AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-41W AND FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-54W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-11N E OF 24W TO THE
COAST OF W AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S MEXICO
TO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF MEXICO S OF TAMPICO W OF 92W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE
NW GULF AND IS ANCHORED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER
LOWS TO AN UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF NEAR 24N85W WITH A TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDING W TO NEAR VERACRUZ AND N TO OVER ALABAMA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE FAR E GULF E OF 85W TO THE COAST OF CUBA...OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA/KEYS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AT THE
SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS EXTENDING FROM THE ATLC
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1016 MB HIGH NEAR 28N86W. THIS IS
GIVING THE NW GULF MOSTLY SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND COUPLED WITH
THE OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N W OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO
INLAND OVER TEXAS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
ALONG 26N THROUGH SAT. TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA LATE WED THEN WEAKENING OVER THE S/CENTRAL WATERS FRI
AND SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP INTO THE FAR NW GULF THU
THEN DRIFT N OF THE AREA FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 16N W OF 72W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO
INLAND OVER CUBA BETWEEN 74W-85W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 14N-18N W OF 82W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
S OF 12N W OF 75W. THE UPPER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS
TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 72W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. TROPICAL WAVE N
OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TODAY AND ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WED AND THU. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE ATLC N OF 30N W OF 35W AND ANCHORED
JUST NE OF BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE ATLC S OF
THE ABOVE UPPER RIDGE THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS CENTERED
NEAR 31N32W...27N50W...27N69W...TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 22N-28N W OF 72W ACROSS FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA INCLUDING THE BAHAMA ISLANDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN
50W-58W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE ENTIRE ATLC
ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH W OF THE AZORES AND A SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N52W 29N71W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIA INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR
WEATHER THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA
OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE ATLC S OF 23N E OF 63W. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SHIFT N TO ALONG 30N ON WED THEN SHIFT N OF THE AREA.
TROPICAL WAVE N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W
ATLC REACHING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WED NIGHT AND THU. A SECOND
TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH ALONG 55W ON FRI ENTERING THE E
CARIBBEAN ON SAT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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