[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 091724
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N25W TO 13N25W MOVING W AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES WITHIN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 23W-27W. SCATTERED RAIN AND
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N63W TO THE NE CARIBBEAN AT
17M65W MOVING NE AT 20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST
IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT REACHING 60W. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21N95W TO
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC NEAR 14N95W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE
IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS  OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 93W-97W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE S OF 22N FROM BETWEEN 91W-98W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 14N16W TO 10N30W. THE
ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N30W TO 7N44W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE
LOW BREAKS THE ITCZ ANALYZED NEAR 6N45W. THE ITCZ REFORMS SW OF
THE LOW NEAR 5N46W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR
3N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST
AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 13W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 30W-43W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF BRAZIL FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 48W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1018 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N87W. FURTHER SE...A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER S FLORIDA...THE
STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND W CUBA FROM 26N80W TO 22N80W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 77W-85W.
A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SEE ABOVE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA PRODUCING
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE N GULF OF
MEXICO... LOUISIANA...AND S MISSISSIPPI N OF 27N BETWEEN
87W-95W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE W OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE N AND
SE GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE S COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN
74W-84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF NE
HONDURAS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 82W-86W...AND INLAND OVER W PANAMA
AND COSTA RICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W. A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF
COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W PRODUCING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST
HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE
BAHAMAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN W OF 77W. A 1031 MB HIGH IS
CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 40N34W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO 32N50W 29N72W. IN
THE UPPER LEVELS A SERIES OF SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE CENTERED
OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC AT 35N37W...29N47W...
27N56W...26N66W...AND 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NOTED SE OF
EACH CIRCULATION. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA







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