[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 090555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON JUL 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N24N ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
TO 10N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS W OF THE
WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 27N58W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
17N62W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
WAVE ALSO COINCIDES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AND WITH AN AREA OF
SAHARAN DUST TO THE E OF THE WAVE LIMITING CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N91W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR
18N93W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA
OF DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 22N TO INLAND OVER MEXICO INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 18N16W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 10N26W TO 7N36W
WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES THROUGH A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 7N43W
TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 7N-11N E OF
17W TO THE COAST AND NEAR THE 1012 MB LOW FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN
43W-46W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 20W-25W...WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ BETWEEN 30W-53W AND FROM 3N TO S OF THE
EQUATOR W OF 44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE S GULF AND ANCHORED IS IN THE E
PACIFIC REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W GULF AND IS ANCHORED
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS TO AN UPPER LOW IN
THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W COVERING THE E GULF. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF TAMPA FLORIDA TO OVER CUBA E OF
83W TO OVER FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO A 1018 MB HIGH NEAR 27N85W. THIS
IS GIVING THE NW GULF SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AND COUPLED WITH THE
OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 88W. THE
ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR
WEATHER TONIGHT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH FRI. THE
TROPICAL WAVE WILL SHIFT W ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH
MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS AND INTO THE SE GULF THU AND FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE THAT COVERS THE S GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER
THE W CARIBBEAN TO 75W. AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC
EXTENDS TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E
GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE GREATER ANTILLES GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 18N TO INLAND OVER HAITI AND
CUBA BETWEEN 72W-82W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA S
OF THE CARIBBEAN WATERS BUT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA TO
NICARAGUA S OF 13N W OF 81W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER TONIGHT. THE TROPICAL WAVE N OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WILL PASS THROUGH THE ISLANDS AND FAR NE
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND MON MOVING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THU AND
INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MOST OF THE W ATLC ANCHORED OFF THE COAST
OF NORTH CAROLINA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC
THROUGH A SERIES OF UPPER LOWS NEAR 30N47W...27N57W...26N65W...
TO THE UPPER LOW IN THE SE GULF OF MEXICO GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 27N TO CUBA W OF 77W TO
FLORIDA INCLUDING THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW NEAR 27N57W COVERING THE AREA
FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN 52W-57W. A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ENTIRE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND
A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N50W 29N67W ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE ATLC E OF 55W TO AS FAR
N AS 30N GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC BASIN FAIR WEATHER
TONIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT N AND MEANDER FROM 29N-31N
FROM TUE THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE
SW ATLC TONIGHT REACHING THE SE BAHAMAS MON NIGHT...CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TUE NIGHT AND THE W BAHAMAS WED INTO THU BEFORE MOVING
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO THU AND FRI.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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