[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 081734
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N21W TO 12N23W MOVING W AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 18W-24W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 28N53W TO 17M58W MOVING NE AT 15-20
KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IS
ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT REACHING 55W. SCATTERED
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO
14N90W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURGE
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE RECEIVING HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ARE AT RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-90W.
RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 83W-92W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 15N17W TO 11N20W TO
10N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N24W TO 7N40W. A WEAK
1012 MB SURFACE LOW BREAKS THE ITCZ ANALYZED NEAR 7N43W. THE
ITCZ REFORMS SW OF THE LOW NEAR 5N44W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE
COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-23W...FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-39W...AND FROM
5N-9N BETWEEN 39W-44W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. A
TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...
LOUISIANA...AND E TEXAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-97W. EXPECT THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED
CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...W PANAMA...COSTA
RICA...AND S NICARAGUA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A 1008 MB
LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS
ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N
COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 77W.
EXPECT...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE.
ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 78W-81W. A
1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 41N33W PRODUCING
FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH
ALONG 32N50W 29N74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N51W PRODUCING
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 51W-57W.
EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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