[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 080553
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA EARLIER
YESTERDAY. AS MODEL DATA AND WEATHER OBSERVATIONS BECAME MORE
CONCLUSIVE...THE WAVE AXIS WAS ADDED TO THE 07/0000 UTC SURFACE
ANALYSIS MAP EXTENDING FROM 19N19W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
NEAR 12N20W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING WEST AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE WAVE
AXIS LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CURRENTLY...THE
CONVECTION THE CONVECTION IN THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE WAVE AXIS
IS CONFINED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSED BELOW.

TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED
FORM 26N51W TO 16N54W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE
WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTICED ON TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. DESPITE SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THE
WAVE ENVIRONMENT...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR THE WAVE AXIS AROUND 29N52W
HELPING THE WAVE TO GENERATE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 22N87W TO
14N90W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY COVER THE NW CARIBBEAN BASIN N OF 11N W OF 81W...AS
WELL AS INLAND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS THAT ARE
RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE AT RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES AND SHOULD MONITOR THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W ALONG 12N20W TO 9N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES TO 7N39W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW BREAKS THE ITCZ
ANALYZED NEAR 7N41W. THE ITCZ REFORMS W OF THE LOW NEAR 6N44W
AND CONTINUES W TO THE ERN COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 6N58W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 110-150 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AND MONSOON TROUGH W OF 23W. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS E OF 23W FROM 8N16N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA TYPE RIDGE
COVERING MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS THIS MORNING.
THIS FEATURE IS GENERATING EASTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
GULF N OF 21N. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND A PAIR OF SURFACE
HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN BASIN NEAR 28N83W. HOWEVER...
CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE FAR
SE GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W-90W. THE
MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS ASSOCIATED TO THE
PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
MOVES ACROSS THE SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS. DESPITE THE
LOCATION OF THE SURFACE FEATURE...THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
ACTUALLY OVER THE NW BAHAMAS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE WEEKEND...WHILE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY COVER THE NW BASIN N
OF 11N W OF 81W ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING INLAND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 11N
W OF 75W...ASSOCIATED TO A PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO ERN PANAMA TO SRN COSTA RICA.
WHILE THE RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW BASIN COULD SEE SOME
BREAKS IN BETWEEN...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CONSTANT AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL
AMERICA...PROVOKING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR SO. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT
AND SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY
TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING
TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN
72W-78W S OF 14N.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS S OF 27N BETWEEN 75W-80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED TO BROAD TURNING AROUND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS SRN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND STRAITS. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH CONVECTION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES
DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD AND
STRONG 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES
EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WRN ATLC KEEPING FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA. THE FAIR WEATHER IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A LARGE
AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE WEST AFRICA TO THE ERN
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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