[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 061739
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 23N41W TO 14N39W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF A PLUM OF SAHARAN DUST. THUS...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 23N75W ACROSS CUBA TO 13N81W MOVING W NEAR
20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED ON
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO
THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO
ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
75W-82W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W ALONG 12N24W TO 9N36W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 8N48W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W.
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N E OF
25W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 32W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON
ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH AT 06/1500 UTC NEAR 27N89W. AN E/W
ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE W ATLC
WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OVER W CUBA TO 23N88W
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N E OF 88W
TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N GULF N OF 27N WITH A WEAK INVERTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM FROM NE FLORIDA TO NEAR MOBILE
ALABAMA. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N TO INLAND OVER W
FLORIDA AND S ALABAMA BETWEEN 86W-89W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN TWO FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO BE THE
TROPICAL WAVE AND MONSOON TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL
WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N
BETWEEN 75W-83W INCLUDING JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1007 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF
COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S
OF 11N TO INLAND OVER PANAMA BETWEEN 76W-82W AND FROM 11N-16N W
OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.
TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT THEN
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT NIGHT. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE
WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN SUN NIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
TUE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN E/W ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER ANDROS ISLAND IN THE
W ATLC WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW ATLC
ANCHORED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 22N65W IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120
NM OF LINE FROM 25N70W TO THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N77W. THE
ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A
1031 MB HIGH NW OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
32N48W ALONG 28N66W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND IS ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. A PLUM OF
SAHARAN DUST CONTINUES TO SPREAD W BETWEEN 10N-28N TO 42W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH TUE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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