[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061052
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N40W 18N39W 12N38W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 16N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N37W.
THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V FOR THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 13N79W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 66W AND 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.


...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
JUST TO THE NORTH OF GAMBIA...TO 10N27W AND 9N35W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 9N35W TO 7N44W AND 7N52W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 22W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN
55W AND 63W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO TRINIDAD AND EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH
IS ALONG 25N45W...TO 19N49W TO A 15N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 8N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO A 25N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 25N91W IN THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN
70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ALONG 100W/101W FOR THE
LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO...FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 31N IN
TEXAS...CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED MORE AND MORE NORTHWARD WITH
TIME. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 19N TO 23N...AND FROM 18N TO 19N
BETWEEN 100W AND 101W INLAND. OTHER CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE INLAND...FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 103W AND
109W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N75W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N84W...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 13N79W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N
BETWEEN 66W AND 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W...BEYOND THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE
LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA
TO COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO THE NORTH OF 6N
TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND FROM
6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W IN COLOMBIA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 33N47W TO A 27N55W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN
225 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 16N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N37W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N45W...TO 19N49W
TO A 15N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N56W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N45W TO 28N61W...PASSING JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH CENTRAL
FLORIDA...REACHING A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N
TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 53W...AND FOR THE 20 KNOT WINDS WITH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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