[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 060518
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N37W 18N37W 12N36W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 16N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N37W.
THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V FOR THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE
SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
PASSING THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N75W IN THE
JAMAICA CHANNEL...TO 13N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
21N TO 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...AND FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL
TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND 78W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 21N16W
TO 14N20W 10N28W AND 9N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N34W TO
8N46W 9N55W...ACROSS NORTHERN GUYANA AND INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 7N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 20W...ISOLATED
MODERATE FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 45W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N
BETWEEN 59W AND 61W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INVERTED TROUGH IS
ALONG 22N47W...TO A 16N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO 8N56W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO
THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N70W TO
A 24N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE
BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 25N91W IN THE
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
20N TO 28N BETWEEN 70W AND 93W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BEEN ALONG 100W/101W FOR THE LAST
24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO...FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 31N IN TEXAS.
THE TROUGH IS ALONG THE SAME BOUNDARIES NOW...MORE OR LESS.
IT IS BEING STRETCHED IN THE NORTHWARD DIRECTION MORE AND MORE
WITH TIME. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 94W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 97W AT THE
COAST TO 100W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN CLUSTERS THAT COVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF
OF MEXICO NEAR 19N92W...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
TO 17N99W IN MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR
26N84W...THROUGH A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N91W...BEYOND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...TO 18N75W IN THE JAMAICA
CHANNEL...TO 13N78W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W...AND FROM THE JAMAICA CHANNEL TO THE
WINDWARD PASSAGE BETWEEN WESTERN HISPANIOLA AND 78W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W...BEYOND THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA
BORDER...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN
COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA BORDER
TO THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...AND FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 79W
AND THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 33N49W TO A 27N57W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N59W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN
225 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO A 16N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N37W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 22N47W...
TO A 16N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N56W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 28N65W...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN SOUTH FLORIDA. THE
RIDGE REACHES A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
28N91W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N
TO 14N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W...AND FOR THE 20 KNOT WINDS
WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AS
THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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