[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUL 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A MOISTURE SURGE AS DEPICTED
ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY WHICH COINCIDES WITH THE
LEADING EDGE OF A PLUM OF SAHARAN DUST. THUS...NO ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 22N67W ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
13N71W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE
SURGE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
UPPER RIDGE IS JUST TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM
25N63W INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN TO 15N89W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 10N27W TO 9N38W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS
CONTINUES ALONG 8N46W 8N56W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR
7N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 7N-10N W OF 52W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. CLUSTERS
OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-10N E OF 19W TO
INLAND OVER AFRICA.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON ANCHORED BY A
1020 MB HIGH AT 05/1500 UTC NEAR 28N86W. AN N/S ELONGATED UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR TAMPICO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N BETWEEN
93W-96W. AN E/W ELONGATED UPPER LOW IS CENTERED IN THE SE GULF
NEAR 24N85W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 23N-26N E OF 89W TO INLAND OVER S FLORIDA. AN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDS FROM W TO E ALONG THE N GULF COAST PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N
BETWEEN PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY LOUISIANA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THIS
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE MAIN TWO FEATURES IN THE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ARE THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E
CARIBBEAN AND THE MONSOON TROUGH IN THE SW. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO
THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-75W WITH SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 15N ACROSS PUERTO RICO
AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS BETWEEN 64W-68W. THE MONSOON TROUGH
EXTENDS ALONG 10N FROM COLOMBIA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N TO THE COAST OF PANAMA W OF 76W TO INLAND
OVER COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE W ACROSS CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT MOVING
ACROSS W CARIBBEAN FRI AND SAT THEN OVER CENTRAL AMERICA SUN. A
SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE E CARIBBEAN LATE MON.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG THE N COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC ACROSS JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO NEAR
29N65W. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 28N59W. A
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS N TO 24N60W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ENHANCING SCATTERED TO HEAVY
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 150/200 NM OF LINE FROM 25N63W TO
OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE INCLUDING THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. A MID
LEVEL LOW IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 17N47W SUPPORTING
A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 30N44W TO 24N48W. OTHERWISE
THE ATLC BASIN IS DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY
A 1032 MB HIGH N OF THE AZORES AND A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N47W ALONG 28N61W ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO AND ENJOYING FAIR WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE
RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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