[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041802
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N24W TO THE MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS NEAR 10N26W. THIS WAVE LIES AHEAD OF A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS
FEATURE IS ATTACHED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS DISCUSSED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 19N61W TO 11N62W MOVING W
AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE VISIBLE
IMAGERY AND MARINE OBS NEAR THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOWED A WELL
DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS...EMBEDDED IN AN
ENHANCED SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 12N-21N BETWEEN
58W-68W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS HEADING TOWARDS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
CONVECTION MAXIMIZED S OF 17N W OF 81W. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS
ENHANCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE FAR SW
CARIBBEAN AND ERN PACIFIC. THIS WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE ERN PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FORM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
MAURITANIA NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N20W TO 9N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM THIS POINT TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 6N53W.
SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50-100 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 46W-53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF 28W FROM 8N-13N.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A NEAR STATIONARY 1020 MB HIGH
LOCATED IN THE EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N84W. ONLY A SMALL CLUSTER
OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY
MOVING SLOWLY WNW ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND WITHIN 70 NM
OFF THE SW TIP OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS
NOTED OFF THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...FAR ERN
LOUISIANA...AND PANAMA CITY/BIG BEND REGION OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW UP TO 10 KT IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE
AREA...BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO MAIN REGIONS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE THE
HEADLINES OF TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
PUERTO RICO PRODUCING NUMEROUS SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WATERS SURROUNDING THESE ISLANDS E OF 68W N OF 12N. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY TRACK WNW ACROSS THE
WATERS SURROUNDING PUERTO RICO AND DOMINICAN REPUBLIC OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE SECOND REGION OF INTEREST IS THE FAR SW
BASIN...WHERE THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO
ERN PANAMA... THEN NW ACROSS SRN COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE TO HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 75W. THE
CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS DOMINATED BY
DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTERED OVER THE ERN BASIN NEAR 14N65W AND AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N-S ALONG 75W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS WSW ACROSS THE WRN NORTH ATLC
ALONG 32N65W TO 20N74W...THEN S ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BASIN ALONG 75W. DESPITE THE LONG AXIS...THIS FEATURE IS ONLY
SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 70W-75W.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM
32N44W TO 28N46W. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS NOTED NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A SMALL AREA
OF WEAK TROUGHING W OF THE BAHAMAS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE
TO HEAVY SHOWERS NEAR THE N CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA TO
THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA S OF 25N W OF 78W. THIS AREA OF WEAK
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AT ABOUT 5-8 KT
ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...A
BROAD/STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON...ANCHORED W OF THE AZORES
BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 40N34W. THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA
IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN AIR ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 SAT
TRACKING PRODUCT FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA TO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA




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