[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041121
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W/24W FROM 10N
TO 20N. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA
THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS PASSING. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS ALONG 27N22W 13N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN
18W AND 31W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W FROM 10N TO 20N.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 66W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W FROM 11N TO 21N.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 13N78W. ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 12N16W TO 10N20W AND 8N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N30W
TO 6N38W AND 5N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 20W AND FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN
45W AND 55W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 18W AND 31W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A GULF OF CALIFORNIA
28N111W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 103W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT
IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND COASTAL WATERS FROM 18N
TO 20N BETWEEN 94W AND 96W...AND IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL PLAINS
OF MEXICO BETWEEN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA AND THE SOUTHERN ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF
THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS
OF FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W. THE RIDGE CONTINUES TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N52W...TO
A 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...EVENTUALLY REACHES
WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF
80W.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N73W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 13N78W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
82W/83W FROM 11N TO 21N. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 13N78W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 11N TO THE
WEST OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
CROSSING THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...BEYOND 7N80W IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE WATERS THAT ARE ADJACENT TO...AND TO THE NORTH OF...
PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND IN EXTREME SOUTHERN NICARAGUA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS OCCURRING
IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA HAS
WEAKENED...LEAVING ONLY ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 71W IN LAKE MARACAIBO AND 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W...AND FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS TO BE ALONG 68W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N52W TO 31N51W...ALONG
A SHEAR AXIS THAT GOES FROM 31N51W TO 29N63W 27N70W...BECOMING
A TROUGH AGAIN FROM 27N70W TO A 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN
60W AND 80W.

A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N67W TO
29N70W...AND THEN AS A SHEAR AXIS FROM 29N70W BEYOND 29N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 31N BETWEEN
65W AND 70W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
34N46W 29N45W 24N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 33N
BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 29N55W...THROUGH 28N71W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS...THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF FLORIDA...
TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N84W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N
TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...AND FOR THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
THAT MAY BE ACCOMPANYING THE 60W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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