[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N21W 10N23W.
AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH
WHICH THIS WAVE IS PASSING. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
21N22W 15N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W 15N58W 10N58W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 12N TO 21N.
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 13N78W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR
14N17W TO 10N24W 10N31W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N41W
TO 6N47W AND 6N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 45W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A GULF OF CALIFORNIA
27N111W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO
TO THE WEST OF 103W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA...TO SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC
AND 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT
IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC WIND
FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISTHMUS
OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE
EAST OF 102W...AND IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 27N86W...CONTINUING TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF OF
MEXICO COAST.

THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N52W...TO
A 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...EVENTUALLY REACHES
WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN MANY SECTIONS OF CUBA
AND BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...SIX HOURS AGO OR SO. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED
AND DISSIPATED.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N73W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND
JAMAICA...TO 13N78W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
81W FROM 12N TO 21N. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
REACHES 13N78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
TO 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA TO THE
NORTH OF 7N...ON EITHER SIDE OF PANAMA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
79W AND 81W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W MOSTLY
IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS
OF EASTERN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W...AND FOR THE TROPICAL
WAVE THAT IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS TO BE ALONG 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N52W TO 31N51W...ALONG
A SHEAR AXIS THAT GOES FROM 31N51W TO 29N64W 28N70W...BECOMING
A TROUGH AGAIN FROM 28N70W TO A 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
MOST IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING
PLACE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 85W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THIS SAME AREA.
A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N67W TO 30N74W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT
PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N70W 28N79W.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND
MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE
AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
33N45W 29N46W 26N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 33N
BETWEEN 39W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N49W TO 28N56W...THROUGH
27N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA...
TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
NEAR 27N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE
NORTH OF 12N 35W AND 45W...AND FOR THE 58W TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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