[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 031800
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 03 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1745 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

ERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS RE-POSITIONED THIS MORNING TO JUST A
FEW MILES OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA S OF DAKAR TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE NEW POSITION WAS BASED
ON MORNING OBSERVATIONS AND LATEST MODEL DATA AVAILABLE. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW
PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE E OF 22W FROM 6N-13N. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO
THE MONSOON TROUGH DISCUSSED BELOW.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE ERN TROPICAL ATLC ABOUT 350 NM
E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES...ANALYZED FROM 19N52W TO 10N56W MOVING
W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD PATTERN ON SATELLITE
VISIBLE IMAGERY AND MARINE OBS NEAR THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT SHOWED
A WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. TPW
PRODUCT ALSO SHOWS AN ENHANCED AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
MAXIMIZED E OF THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NOTED FROM 13N-18N BETWEEN 53W-53W.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN BASIN ANALYZED
FORM ERN JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N76W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15-20 KT. AN
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED BROAD TURNING AROUND THE WAVE
AXIS. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE HAS DECREASED SINCE LAST ANALYSIS THIS
MORNING. HENCE...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS WSW FORM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF
GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N30W TO 8N43W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM THIS POINT TO 10N50W. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH
BETWEEN 30W-41W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN
48W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E
OF 22W FROM 6N-13N. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO ASSOCIATED TO THE
ERN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS ITS
INFLUENCE ACROSS THE BASIN FROM A 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE
EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N84W. ONLY AN AREA OF WEAK SURFACE
TROUGHING IS NOTED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE GENERATING A SMALL
CLUSTER OF WEAK TO MODERATE SHOWERS S OF 23N W OF 94W. A
RELATIVELY DRY MID-UPPER ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTS THE CURRENT WEATHER
CONDITIONS AT SURFACE. ESE SURFACE FLOW UP TO 10 KT IS OBSERVED
ACROSS THE AREA...BECOMING SOUTHERLY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS OF
TEXAS AND WRN LOUISIANA. WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CONSTANT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTI-CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE ERN BASIN NEAR
13N65W AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING N-S ACROSS ERN
CUBA ALONG JAMAICA TO CENTRAL PANAMA. THIS IS KEEPING DEEP
CONVECTION UNDER CONTROL ACROSS MOST THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS
AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF WEAK TO MODERATE
SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ALONG
76W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FOUND OVER THE FAR SW BASIN NEAR THE
COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND WRN PANAMA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM NRN COLOMBIA INTO THE FAR ERN PACIFIC
ALONG THE SRN COAST OF PANAMA. THE CONVECTION IN THIS REGION IS
EXPECTED TO LINGER DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL WAVE E
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL BEGIN TO BRING SCATTERED HEAVY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THIS GROUP OF ISLANDS TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION DRIFTS WEST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 32N39W...SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
ANALYZED FROM 32N41W TO 28N43W. NO SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY IS NOTED
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A
SMALL AREA OF WEAK TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WNW AT ABOUT 5-10 KT ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC DISCUSSION AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...ANCHORED W OF THE AZORES BY A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR
38N35W. THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY
SAHARAN AIR ALOFT NOTED ON METEOSAT-9 SAT TRACKING PRODUCT FROM
THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BASIN.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

GARCIA



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