[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021210
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W 10N40W. BROKEN
TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE
FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ
FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W.

A COMPARATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 11N52W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. THIS WAVE IS LOSING
ITS DEFINITION WITH TIME. IT EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH
AMERICA AND IT IS MORE PROBABLE THAT IT WILL NOT BE
TRACKABLE ANY MORE AFTER ANOTHER 24 HOURS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N.
THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE
EAST OF A 16N76W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW
IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OR MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR
11N15W TO 9N20W AND 7N32W. THE ITCZ IS NONDESCRIPT. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N
TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 17W...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND
46W...FROM THE COASTS OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA TO 8N
BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO TO THE WEST
OF 100W.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT
IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC
CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE LAST EIGHT HOURS
OR SO IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...IN EASTERN GUATEMALA
NEAR SOUTHERN BELIZE...IN WESTERN HONDURAS...AND POSSIBLY
IN EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W.

STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF GEORGIA ABOUT NINE HOURS AGO. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
WAS CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN GEORGIA WARMED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION
DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE
RUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN
77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N58W REACHES
THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
BETWEEN CUBA AND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...BETWEEN ANDROS
ISLAND AND CUBA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N
BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS
FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N86W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA.

NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED
AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N60W...TO PUERTO RICO
AND HISPANIOLA...AND THEN TO A 16N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE
IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE
EAST OF A 16N76W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND
ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND
FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
64W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OR MOST OF THIS
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N81W IN
PANAMA...TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE ALONG 81W JUST TO THE
NORTH OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 70W
TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
REACHING 10 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W
INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N62W...TOWARD
THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND
70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N50W 27N52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W.

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N37W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 33N39W 28N41W 25N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN
36W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N50W TO 30N58W 28N72W...
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1018 MB EAST CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS
FROM 10N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 74W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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