[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 011743
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
WHEW UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N37W TO A WEAK 1012 MB LOW NEAR 8N32W
MOVING 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE WITH DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE CENTER OF THE WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N44W TO 5N46W MOVING W NEAR NEAR 20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS LOW AMPLITUDE WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
SLIGHT DRY AIR INTRUSION ALONG THE CENTER OF THE WAVE AS
DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N63W TO 11N63W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT.
WAVE REMAINS WITHIN A SURFACE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE
APPROACHING AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS GENERATING

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 19N16W CONTINUING ALONG 14N22W TO 10N31W. THE ITCZ IS
BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 9N FROM 35W-44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 10N
BETWEEN 21W-24W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE NW GULF NEAR 27N93W
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST
OF TEXAS S OF GALVESTON AND MEXICO N OF TUXPAN. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE GULF ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH IN THE NE
GULF NEAR 28N85W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER
THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING TO OVER THE SE GULF PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N-25N E OF 87W TO OVER THE FLORIDA
KEYS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE E GULF THROUGH
TONIGHT BEFORE THE ATLC RIDGE BUILDS W ACROSS THE GULF MON
THROUGH THU.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A LARGE UPPER LOW DOMINATES MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR
16N76W. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W TROPICAL ATLC NEAR
12N57W TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND IS INTERACTING WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE IN THE FAR E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 10N55W ACROSS THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS TO ALONG 12N63W TO 16N68W. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS EXTENDING TO OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N TO THE
COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 75W-83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A
INLAND OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 8N75W ACROSS PANAMA NEAR 9N79W TO OVER
COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 79W TO INLAND OVER PANAMA TO S
NICARAGUA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE
INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY MON AND ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN TUE
THROUGH WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS
EXTENDING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO/NW CARIBBEAN AND COVERS THE W
ATLC S OF 28N W OF 62W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
20N-22N BETWEEN 63W-67W. EMBEDDED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE IS A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 25N70W OVER THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO 21N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A WEAK
UPPER LOW IS TO THE N CENTERED NEAR 30N73W SUPPORTING A SECOND
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N64W ALONG 30N64W TO
27N65W. A LARGE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 32N57W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF
LINE FROM 25N50W TO ALONG 29N57W TO 31N58W. A SECOND LARGE UPPER
LOW IN THE CENTRAL ATLC IS CENTERED NEAR 30N36W SUPPORTING A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 32N37W TO 25N41W GENERATING
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
27N-33N BETWEEN 33W-42W. OTHERWISE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES
THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 250 NM W OF THE AZORES
EXTENDING ALONG 26N/27N ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
WITH WEAKNESSES IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE ABOVE SURFACE
TROUGHS. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO 28N THROUGH THU. THE
WESTERN MOST SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE SE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
MON AND MON NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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