[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 010611
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUL 01 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 10N TO 17N ALONG
23W/24W...PASSING THROUGH THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. BROKEN
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM
12N TO 18N BETWEEN 23W AND 30W.

A COMPARATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS
ALONG 39W/40W FROM 7N TO 12N. NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 11N TO
18N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR
16N20W TO 14N20W 9N28W 10N34W 9N37W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N41W TO 6N52W AND 7N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...STRONG
FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 25W AND 26W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 34W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 50W
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES EXTENDS FROM A 31N58W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO 27N64W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS TO 27N72W...
ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO 25N89W
CYCLONIC CENTER. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT...THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 31N62W TO 28N66W AND 27N71W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
54W AND 74W...AND WITHIN 120 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE 28N70W
26N78W 25N83W 24N90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N68W 23N69W
20N70W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO NEAR 25N102W. CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THIS
CENTER COVERS MEXICO...TEXAS...AND ADJACENT GULF OF MEXICO
WATERS FROM 20N TO 32N BETWEEN 96W AND 109W. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO
25N89W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A NORTHERN GUATEMALA
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS FROM HONDURAS TO BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...POSSIBLY
INCLUDING EL SALVADOR.

A COMPARATIVELY WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BETWEEN THE 25N102W CYCLONIC CENTER
AND THE 25N89W CYCLONIC CENTER. EARLIER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
THAT WAS OCCURRING FROM 24N TO THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS
BETWEEN 93W AND 96W HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 26N79W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
TO A 1016 MB SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N84W...TO 25N93W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH OF 25N DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N60W TO 17N66W...
TO A 16N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 20N
BETWEEN 60W AND 67W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
59W/60W FROM 11N TO 18N. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 62W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND
81W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N74W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N79W IN
PANAMA...BEYOND 8N83W IN COSTA RICA NEAR ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WATER THAT
IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA AND THE NICARAGUA
COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF
IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE
SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W. 20 KNOT WINDS ALSO WILL BE
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS...AND WITH A 24 HOUR TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG 64W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 50W...

AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N37W.
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 22N TO 34N BETWEEN 28W AND 46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 30N34W 29N37W 27N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN
35W AND 39W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N45W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 30N53W 27N63W...TO 26N79W IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
TO A 1016 MB SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 25N84W...TO 25N93W IN THE WEST CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS
ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 59W/60W
TROPICAL WAVE...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT





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