[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST MON JAN 30 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2300 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 4N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N21W
ALONG 2N34W EQ49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE
AXIS BETWEEN 19W-23W. SOME ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO
WELL N OF THE AXIS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 32W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1031 MB HIGH OVER GEORGIA IS PROVIDING
FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
CLEAR SKIES ARE PRESENT. MAINLY ELY SURFACE WINDS OF 15-20 KTS
ARE AROUND THE SRN EXTENDS OF THE RIDGE BECOMING SELY NEAR THE
COAST OF TEXAS. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS SUPPORTING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE
BASIN. THE WRN HALF OF THE GULF IS COVERED IN MULTI-LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 94W.
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY IS ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 23N95W TO 19N95W. A SHORTWAVE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH NOW APPEARS TO BE BROADENING...IS ACROSS SRN
TEXAS AND MAY ALSO BE ENHANCING SOME OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.
MOSTLY SW FLOW ALOFT COVERS THE GULF DRAWING MOISTURE FROM THE
ERN PACIFIC ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO DRIFT WWD WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER
VENEZUELA. A FEW PATCHES OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ARE SUPPORTING
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...TRADEWIND
FLOW OF 15-20 KTS DOMINATES THE BASIN WITH PATCHES OF EMBEDDED
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE NOTED INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA...AS WELL AS
HISPANIOLA. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SIT OVER
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS TO THE N OF THE AXIS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WRN ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT ALONG 32N64W TO 26N73W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
DISSIPATING TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N81W. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 19N64W TO 37N38W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A
SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 30N47W. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IMPACTS THE ERN ATLC WITH AXIS FROM THE MADEIRA ISLANDS
TO N OF BRAZIL NEAR 3N44W. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS THE TAIL
END OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT ALONG 32N26W TO 28N30W. ISOLATED
SHOWER ARE ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
HELPING FLAIR UP SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF THE ITCZ REGION AS WELL
AS UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE ITCZ REGION TO WRN AFRICA. EXPECT
THE FRONT IN THE W ATLC TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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