[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291124
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST SUN JAN 29 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 11N14W TO 6N19W WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES ALONG
2N29W 4N46W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N51W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N
BETWEEN 6W-26W INCLUDING THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND FROM 4N-7N
BETWEEN 40W-59W INCLUDING THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS AT 29/0900 UTC FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS
S FLORIDA JUST S OF NAPLES TO 25N84W WHERE IT DISSIPATES ALONG
22N90W INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT
W OF 82W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND S OF 23N W OF 93W TO
OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE GREAT LAKES AREA SW TO TEXAS...THE ASSOCIATED FRONT HAS
DISSIPATED. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO OVER NE MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES
TO BUILD OVER THE GULF ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1032 MB HIGHS OVER
W/CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND CENTRAL TEXAS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY S MON THEN DISSIPATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SE CONUS WILL MOVE EASTWARD
AND OFF THE SE U.S. COAST MON NIGHT ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN
FLOW TO SET UP OVER THE W GULF THROUGH THU. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE FAR NW GULF THU.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS GIVING THE
CARIBBEAN SW TO W FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
SHOW VERY STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ACROSS THE BASIN
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF W OF 82W WHERE THE FRONT OVER THE SE GULF
OF MEXICO IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 17N W OF 85W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS SE
OF LINE FROM SW HAITI TO THE TIP OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA TO ACROSS
THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE NW
CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE ACROSS MUCH OF THE N CARIBBEAN THROUGH
WED THEN WEAKEN THU. AS A RESULT OF THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL GENERATE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU AND OVER THE W
TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH WED BEFORE DIMINISHING SOMEWHAT.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC CONTINUES SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT AT 29/0900 UTC IS DRAPED ALONG 32N61W TO 31N68W
BECOMING STATIONARY THEN CONTINUING ALONG 29N74W INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE
W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC ARE DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 31N49W GIVING THE AREA FAIR
WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN 25W-40W WITH AN UPPER LOW NEAR
19N32W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N31W
ALONG 27N33W THROUGH A 1015 MB LOW NEAR 23N32W AND CONTINUING
ALONG 20N33W TO 16N39W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20N-25N BETWEEN 27W-33W. A SURFACE RIDGE
DOMINATES THE FAR E ATLC E OF 25W ANCHORED BY A 1032 MB HIGH
WELL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM BERMUDA TO E OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY MON AND
DISSIPATING STATIONARY BOUNDARY TO W CUBA. THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC EARLY TUE AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE W ATLC OFF THE SE U.S. COAST. THE HIGH WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER NE OF AREA WED AND THU. A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE FAE NW WATERS LATE WED AND THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW





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