[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 271747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST FRI JAN 27 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SRN
SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N18W
ALONG 3N30W 3N40W 4N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30
NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 21W-34W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-6N
BETWEEN 42W-48W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM
NE FLORIDA NEAR 30N81W ACROSS THE PENINSULA TO 28N83W NEAR TAMPA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AT 20N90W. SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS WITH RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING ISOLATED SHOWERS
WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER LAND. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 150 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER WATER WITH A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 84W-86W. THE FRONT IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE BASIN AND ERN CONUS.
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH IS HELPING
PROVIDE VERY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE NW GULF.
SURFACE RIDGING IS ALSO BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER TEXAS. WINDS OF
15-20 KTS ARE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING WEAKER OVER THE
WRN GULF NEAR THE SURFACE HIGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE
SE BEFORE STALLING OVER S FLORIDA OVER THE WEEKEND.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST
OF THE BASIN EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 68W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF
15-20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ESPECIALLY
NOTED FROM 14N-17N. THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF IS APPROACHING THE NW
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER S
FLORIDA AND DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE CARIBBEAN. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MAY STILL IMPACT THE NW CARIBBEAN
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A COLD FRONT IS BEGINNING TO IMPACT THE FAR WRN ATLC WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE UNITED STATES ERN SEABOARD. THE FRONT
IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN CONUS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH THE FRONT EWD. THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 31N62W
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 65W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ALONG 43W COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 28N37W TO 21N39W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE NEAR
THE NRN TIP OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH SINKS INTO THE
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N39W TO 28N43W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE ALONG THE AXIS. THE ERN ATLC IS DOMINATED BY ANOTHER SURFACE
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 43N19W. THE HIGH IS SUPPORTED
BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 22W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net