[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 261744
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST THU JAN 26 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N10W TO 5N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N17W ALONG 2N30W 4N42W
2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 16W-28W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-7N BETWEEN 33W-40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS FROM
SE LOUISIANA NEAR 30N90W ALONG 27N90W 21N95W. A STRONG LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG A SQUALL LINE FROM
30N89W TO 28N89W WHERE IT THEN RUNS ALONG THE FRONT AXIS. A SURFACE
TROUGH TRAILS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W ACCOMPANIED BY
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS. THE FRONT IS
SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ERN TEXAS AND THE
CENTRAL CONUS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STILL COVERS THE ERN GULF WITH
AXIS ALONG 78W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE
W ATLC WHICH IS KEEPING THE ERN GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES. SE-S WINDS
OF 10-15 KTS ARE ACROSS THE SE GULF REACHING 20 KTS JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT...NW WINDS OF 20-25 KTS ARE OBSERVED.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO MAKE ITS WAY EWD WITH LIKELY STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING MOST
OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 78W. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS IS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ESPECIALLY NOTED S OF
JAMAICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE NW GULF OVER
THE WEEKEND.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FAR ERN GULF OF MEXICO...ERN CONUS AND
WRN ATLC WITH AXIS ALONG 78W SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1024
MB HIGH NEAR 34N69W. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE W ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STILL COVERS THE CENTRAL
ATLC WITH TWO SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN. THE FIRST IS ALONG 40N49W
TO 23N56W. THE SECOND IS ALONG 37N42W TO 26N38W SUPPORTING A SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 30N40W TO 18N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 300 NM E
OF THE AXIS. TO THE S...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS ALONG 16N57W TO 10N58W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE AXIS. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY SURFACE RIDGING
AROUND A 1030 MB HIGH NEAR 41N24W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALONG 27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON





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