[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241746
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE JAN 24 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE ITCZ EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA CROSSING THE COAST OF LIBERIA
NEAR 6N11W ALONG 3N21W 5N31W 2N43W 3N51W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 1N-7N BETWEEN 18W-24W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 33W-38W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM EQ-4N BETWEEN
39W-46W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A WARM FRONT LINES THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 29N91W
29N97W TO 27N99W...AS OF 1500 UTC. SCATTERED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 15 NM S OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 100 NM
N OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER INFLUENCED BY SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING
FROM THE W ATLC. MAINLY SE-S SURFACE FLOW OF 10-15 KTS IS S OF
THE FRONT...WHILE ELY FLOW OF ABOUT 15 KTS IS N OF THE FRONT.
ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN EXTENDING FROM THE
CARIBBEAN ALONG 82W. DUE TO THE LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE RETREATING NWD AND DISSIPATE
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT ENTERS THE NW GULF LATER IN THE WEEK.
SURFACE RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WRN GULF AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN TODAY DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERING
THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN WITH AXIS ALONG 82W. A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 62W...BUT IS
ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR AND IS CAUSING LITTLE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
IN THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20 KTS IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
BASIN. A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW ESPECIALLY ALONG A SWATH FROM
15N74W TO THE NICARAGUAN COAST NEAR 14N83W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT
ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD...STILL N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS TO THE E OVER THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A
SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1034 MB HIGH NEAR 43N53W WHICH IS
PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND SURROUNDING AREAS.
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 30N72W TO 26N74W
SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE AXIS. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 34N41W TO 22N65W
IS ENHANCING A FEW PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 60W-64W. THE UPPER LOW IS
ALSO SUPPORTING A SURFACE LOW N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A
SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ALONG 32N38W TO 21N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N OF 29N. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS TO
THE W ALONG 28N45W TO 24N49W CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.
ACROSS THE ERN ATLC...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AZORES
ISLANDS SUPPORTS A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 44N16W WHICH EXTENDS SWD
INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGHS IN THE
CENTRAL ATLC TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON




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