[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

EMWIN Server emwin at nashvilleweather.net
Sun Jan 22 11:47:59 CST 2012


AXNT20 KNHC 221747
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SUN JAN 22 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N11W TO
05N17W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
05N17W TO 01N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 37W. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 05N BETWEEN THE PRIME
MERIDIAN AND 12W...AND FROM 05N-08N BETWEEN 09W-15W. OTHER
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 75 NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 02N23W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 33W TO
04N43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACROSS THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON WITH AXIS
ALONG 90W THAT STRETCHES NORTHWARD OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE SUPPORTS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS
ALONG 27N/28N ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SW
NORTH ATLC NEAR 28N74W. WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN IN PLACE OVER
THE BASIN...MOSTLY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS ARE NOTED IN SHIP...
BUOY...AND OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORMS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT.
WIND ARE EXPECTED TO VEER SOUTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NW
GULF AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT EMERGES OFF THE TEXAS COAST BY
MONDAY MORNING. GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THIS FRONT RATHER WEAK AS IT
SKIRTS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. BY MIDWEEK...
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA
DEVELOPS OVER TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DISPLAYS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS ALOFT
OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN THIS AFTERNOON THAT IS PROVIDING FOR
OVERALL TRANQUIL WEATHER AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A FEW AREAS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
N-NE TRADES ARE GENERATING LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS OVER THE SE
CARIBBEAN S OF 13N E OF 71W...AND IN THE VICINITY OF COASTAL
NICARAGUA... FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 81W-84W. WHILE FRESH TO STRONG
N-NE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST...THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST
THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MOST OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE
RIDGE THAT REMAINS ANCHORED BY A TRIO OF HIGH CENTERS...THE MAIN
1025 MB HIGH CENTERED SE OF BERMUDA NEAR 31N62W. THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS W-SW FROM THE 1025 MB HIGH TO A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 28N74W
TO A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.
THIS HIGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 60W-70W
HOWEVER HAS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING EASTWARD
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS ALL DUE IN PART TO AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT HAS PROGRESSED OFF THE EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD WITH
AXIS FROM 34N73W TO 28N77W AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM 32N76W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W. LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE VERY NEAR THE FRONT REMAINS LIMITED...HOWEVER
WITH A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGHS...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE MAXIMIZED
GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 68W-74W.
FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 29N47W THAT SUPPORTS A COMPLEX AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED AS A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 33N45W. A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N40W TO 20N41W TO 16N45W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 210 NM EAST OF THE BOUNDARY N
OF 24N AND WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 24N. TO
THE WEST OF THIS FRONT...TWO WAVES OF ENERGY ROTATE AROUND THE
LOW CENTER. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT REMAINS ANALYZED FROM
28N47W TO 24N50W TO 21N60W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING
WITHIN 90 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 23N AND A WEAKER SURFACE
TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 27N48W TO 29N55W. THE REMAINDER OF THE
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1033 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N27W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN




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