[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 211707
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST SAT JAN 21 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W AND
CONTINUES SW TO 4N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N20W TO 2N30W TO
1N40W TO COASTAL BRAZIL NEAR 1S48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ALONG THE COAST OF THE
IVORY COAST FROM 1N-5N BETWEEN 3W-8W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 19W-21W...AND
FROM 1N-3N BETWEEN 30W-37W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS JUST INLAND OVER S TEXAS. 10-20 KT SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONGEST WINDS
OVER THE NW GULF WHERE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
UP. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES
ARE IN THE 60'S AND 70'S. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NW FLOW
PREVAILS OVER THE GULF WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND SCATTERED
HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE N GULF N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. EXPECT THE FRONT TO DRIFT TO THE
TEXAS COAST THIS EVENING WITH SHOWERS THEN RETROGRADE BACK
INLAND AGAIN TONIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND LIGHTEST WINDS IN THE GULF
OF HONDURAS. PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE OVER THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS...ALONG THE COASTS OF
COSTA RICA AND NICARAGUA...AND OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOSTLY
FAIR SKIES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... NW FLOW IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W WHILE ZONAL
FLOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE
ENTIRE AREA. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N67W PRODUCING FAIR
WEATHER. A 1015 MB LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR 33N53W. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG 30N52W 27N55W 25N64W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN
50W-52W. ANOTHER 1014 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
29N45W DRIFTING N. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW ALONG
26N40W 23N39W 16N46W. A WARM FRONT ALSO EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW
TO BEYOND 21N46W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
FRONT. A 1037 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 38N20W. A
RIDGE AXIS EXTEND S FROM THE HIGH TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.
EXPECT THE W ATLANTIC FRONT TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WHILE THE OTHER FRONT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY WITH
CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

FORMOSA





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